IAIC Market Update - October 3, 2022
Last Week in the Markets: September 26th – 30th, 2022
(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)
What happened last week?
- Several important announcements were made Friday.
- Canadian Gross Domestic Product rose 0.1% in August, matching the gain in July. This small increase countered the analyst consensus that the economy would shrink. Oil sands production, agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting led the growth, while manufacturing and wholesale trade shrank. Despite these setbacks Canadian economic growth remains strong relative to other countries. (Source1, Source2)
- US GDP for the second quarter is responding to interest rate increases, among other factors, as it fell 0.6% after falling 1.6% in the first quarter. (Source)
- Eurozone inflation beat expectations and has now risen to 10% in September and was the eleventh consecutive month that regional inflation set a record high. The European Central Bank intends to raise rates until inflation is controlled and approaching the 2% target.
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), which is the inflation indicator used by the Federal Reserve rose again in August. Overall, the PCE increased 0.3%, and excluding food and energy the core PCE rose 0.6% to 4.9%, which is well above the target of 2%. (Source1, Source2)
- With inflation well beyond target, and economic growth steady or declining slightly, equity markets are anticipating additional monetary moves by the Fed and Bank of Canada. The major U.S. equity indices are all in "bear" territory now that the Dow has also lost more than 20% so far this year. (Source)
What’s ahead for this week?
- In Canada, the trade balance for August, including Imports and Exports, will be announced, and will be heavily influenced by the elevated price of commodities over the summer months. On Friday, September’s employment report highlighting job creation and the unemployment rate will be released.
- In the U.S., a wide array of economic indicators, including construction spending, durable goods orders, factory orders, trade balance PMIs (Purchasing Managers Index) are scheduled. The most significant news arrives on Friday morning with the release of the Non-Farm Payroll report.
- Globally, the two most important measures from the Eurozone will be the Producer Price Index and retail sales. China will celebrate the formation of the People’s Republic of China with their weeklong National Day observance, which is referred to as Golden Week.
For more information contact:
Independent Accountants’ Investment Counsel Inc.
135 Main St. E. Listowel, ON
Phone: 519-291-2817 or TF: 1-877-291-3040
icpmss@iaic.ca
This report is produced by Independent Accountants' Investment Counsel Inc (“IAIC”) in conjunction with ARG Inc. All graph and chart statistical data contained in this report has been supplied by ARG Inc. The views and opinions expressed in this report are based on market statistics. No guarantee of outcome is implied and opinions may change without notice. Investors should not base any of their investment decisions solely on this report nor should any opinions expressed within this report be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Although the information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that IAIC believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and as such, the information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions, estimates and other information included in this report constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice.
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